Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 34.443970 37.098561 39.996915 43.422751 47.396843 51.906933 57.479484
2025-09-14 30.523936 33.986508 38.004790 43.099343 49.521017 57.549713 68.710475
2025-09-21 27.897880 31.663014 36.192358 42.188938 50.168078 60.838905 77.053849
2025-09-28 25.876293 29.778127 34.597409 41.190357 50.344229 63.284684 84.551409
2025-10-05 25.235243 29.494806 34.916026 42.621972 53.887174 70.977192 102.238199
2025-10-12 24.494462 28.991934 34.858752 43.472525 56.647460 77.981740 121.432223
2025-10-19 23.713841 28.360024 34.546172 43.882390 58.741067 84.291513 142.227792
2025-10-26 22.896825 27.613523 33.999529 43.861260 60.100196 89.566449 163.715163
2025-11-02 21.951318 26.630886 33.042669 43.110236 60.111654 92.260825 180.415928
2025-11-09 21.043314 25.650169 32.022838 42.164532 59.650547 93.891998 195.339270
2025-11-16 20.288335 24.844609 31.206788 41.468218 59.535904 96.222927 214.608023
2025-11-23 19.605593 24.108608 30.449965 40.803409 59.390756 98.456565 235.931218
2025-11-30 19.354121 23.987785 30.619538 41.705750 62.387770 109.047163 309.278198
2025-12-07 18.813242 23.427856 30.097102 41.408268 63.023872 114.104165 368.359760
2025-12-14 18.179985 22.706872 29.289896 40.558455 62.431505 115.746033 411.802678
2025-12-21 17.569931 21.997274 28.467519 39.625885 61.562530 116.428990 452.712559
2025-12-28 17.525289 22.111542 28.923123 40.962598 65.668444 133.328015 766.430716
2026-01-04 17.358264 22.034841 29.070378 41.755684 68.733962 148.817279 1443.334929
2026-01-11 17.113571 21.830259 28.999697 42.137567 70.923772 162.674073 3507.377617
2026-01-18 16.802196 21.512384 28.728444 42.117884 72.150876 173.663077 19768.315314
2026-01-25 16.375049 21.004141 28.123892 41.417971 71.595817 176.808032 NaN
2026-02-01 15.933836 20.462311 27.444889 40.535731 70.483602 177.055509 NaN
2026-02-08 15.557530 20.010439 26.899613 39.885501 69.905307 179.778970 NaN